EMDT_European Medical Device Technology

EMDT Sourcebook 2015-2016

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The Source book | 2015 emdt.co.uk Market Report 4 W estern european markets will remain highly import-depen- dent, in spite of increasing exports. but they will lose market share in global trade, reflecting a shift in manufacturing to lower-cost production bases in eastern europe and Asia. Western European Markets Will Contract In 2015 Due To Strong Dollar We do not anticipate any substantial GDP improvement in Western europe in the short term. real GDP growth in eurozone markets will average 1.6% between 2015 and 2019, while growth in non-eurozone markets will be slightly higher at 1.8%, which will compare poorly with global economic growth of 3.1%. As a result, cost containment will remain high on the agenda in all Western european markets, with efficiency measures offsetting underlying growth drivers such as the ageing population, the rising incidence of chronic disease, the need to replace medical equipment and investment in new technologies. We forecast that the Western european medical device market will record a 2014-2019 cAGr of 2.7% in uS dollar terms, reaching uSD101.3 billion at manufacturers' prices in 2019. cAGrs will range from 5.1% for the uk to just 0.8% for Italy. Western europe will con- tinue to underperform within the global medical device market, although we note that growth rates have started to converge, with many previously fast-growing markets seeing their growth rates fall to single-digit figures, bringing the global rate down to under 5.0%. Market performance will be particularly weak in 2015 due to the strong dollar, with contractions forecast in all Western european mar- kets. eurozone markets will record the most marked falls due to a 20% depreciation of the euro against the uS dollar, which we anticipate will approach parity by the end of 2015. We expect most markets to return to low growth in 2016, with higher growth from 2017; exceptions include Spain and Italy, which will see a further decline in 2016 due to low economic growth, budgetary restrictions and limited investment in medical technology. Despite the relatively modest growth rate, Western europe will continue to account for around a quarter of the global medical device market and regional per capita spending will remain more than double the global average, rising to uSD260 by 2019. Western European Markets Will Lose Market Share In Global Trade Western european medical device markets will remain highly import- dependent. The market share for imported products will stay at 80% or higher, with the exception of Germany, France and the uk, where the share of imported products will remain between 70% and 80% due to well-developed domestic manufacturing bases. Medical device imports have grown at a 2009-2014 cAGr of 4.2% in uS dollar terms, reaching uSD90.4 billion. eurozone markets, which represent 80.1% of the regional imports, have recorded a higher cAGr of 4.6%, while non-eurozone markets have registered a slower cAGr of 2.8%. The higher growth for eurozone markets is partly explained by the high re-exporting activity taking place in belgium and the Netherlands, and, to a lesser extent, in Ireland due to the activities of Seven Predictions for the european Medtech Market The medical device market in Western Europe will remain constrained by weakness in the eurozone, which is struggling to recover momentum. Non-eurozone markets will record higher 2014-2019 CAGRs, led by the UK. Karen Simpkins and Ricardo Vicente

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